Predict4Resilience

About the Project 

Weather plays a huge role in how the network behaves and severe weather can, in rare events, have an impact on the electricity network causing a significant inconvenience to individuals and businesses who are increasingly dependable on their electricity supply. Predict4Resilience (P4R) will provide accurate fault insights and forecasts for its users during adverse weather events. It is one of the first projects in Great Britain to utilise probabilistic fault prediction and related decision support, transforming human centric decision making and leading to an improved response to faults on the HV network.

P4R will provide Control Room operatives short term predictions regarding the expected level of faults in each district across the license area up to 7 days in advance. This will allow distribution network operators (DNOs) to better prepare for a storm and restore power supply sooner than is currently possible and minimise disruption for customers.

This proactive response will enable power supply to be restored more quickly than currently possible, reducing customer minutes lost and generating considerable direct benefits to consumers, network operators and the environment.

Project Objectives

• Significantly improve network planning, modelling, and forecasting capabilities to deliver the next generation of user driven digital products across transmission and distribution
• Will enable power supply to be restored sooner than is currently possible, creating a more resilient network and minimising disruption and stress for customers, particularly vulnerable
• Enable resources (engineers, mobile generation, welfare provisions, customer liaison staff, mobile catering for consumers etc) to be proactively placed in those areas most likely to be impacted, something that can be especially important in remote locations where travel distances are significant
• The end software solution will be fit for all Great Britain and intentional DNOs, as well as any adjacent sectors who suffer weather related interruptions

The Benefits For Customers

• Benefits to consumers
  • Social benefits of a more reliable power supply, particularly for the vulnerable or those medically dependant by reducing stress and anxiety
• Improved customer service
  • Greater communication ahead of potential storm disruption in the days leading up to an event
• Cost reduction in operating the networks and wider energy system
  • Through reduced customer minutes lost, Guaranteed Standards of Performance penalties and avoided network costs
• Environmental benefits
  • Avoided CO₂ emissions from reduced diesel generator consumption
  • Reduction in generator usage (and diesel fuel consumption) leading to improved air quality
• New to market products, processes, and services
  • Provide competition to adjacent/comparable products, driving down costs to the benefit of UK customer

Project Partners

• SSEN
• Sia Partners
• University of Glasgow