The text below is the transcript from the EV-UP video.
Video Title: EV-UP
In the UK, electric vehicles are growing in numbers and with a ban on the sale of petrol and diesel powered cars set for 2035, ownership by domestic customers of electric vehicles is forecast to rise rapidly over the coming years.
To maintain the high level of service that customer’s have came to expect from the distribution network, it is vital that network operators have the tools required to accurately predict both where and when the low voltage network will experience the uptake of domestic EV charging.
However, it is already clear that market uptake is not following any standard technology adoption we have seen in the past and no model is available that will help predict EV growth.
With EVs we are seeing very different adoption patterns, on one hand we have the owners of purchased vehicles best suited to local short journeys and charge infrequently and at the other end of the scale we have profiles of owners that cover high mileage and charge frequently, putting very different demands on the low voltage network.
SP Energy Networks innovation project, Electric Vehicle Uptake Modelling or EV Up has established a layered modelling forecasting platform that improves the understanding of customers ability to transition to electric vehicles.
Presently, the majority of electric vehicle impact forecast modelling looks only at general adoption trends across geographical areas. EV Up takes a very different approach, using increased understanding of individual households’ ability and desire to transition to low carbon transport, by looking at the probability of a household being able to park and charge at home, the demographics, including income and behaviours and predicted household mileage and the resulting charge demand.
The tool assumes that the ability to park and charge in domestic household drives or garages will be the key enabler for early adoption.
Through EV Up, a detailed analysis is initially conducted to determine a parking opportunity score based on several factors, such as proximity to the road, ability to park multiple vehicles and the type of property.
EV Up then uses the parking score, layered with local demographic information on the consumer and societal trends at a local level, to forecast the probability of specific types of vehicle. By understanding the expected vehicle type, it can then use the statistical mileage to more accurately forecast average domestic charging requirements and ultimately the expected demand on the local network.
This general increase in demand over time, can be characterised by a rising tide. The model will allow scenarios to forecast this tideline, providing the ability to accelerate or decelerate and enabling network officers to efficiently plan ahead of need, ensuring the network can meet the increased demand with the lowest possible impact and cost to the customer.
However, we anticipate the increase of electric vehicle uptake coming in sudden waves of growth at local levels, rather than a constantly smooth curve. This sudden increase will be driven by single high consumption groups adopting EVs very rapidly. Predicting the timing of these surges, will be much harder. However, using the same data modelling from EV Up it will be possible to identify areas where those sudden growths are likely to be experienced. In turn, allowing network operators to prioritise network resilience decisions ahead of demand.
The development of EV Up has delivered a new way of looking at data, creating a robust methodology and modelling platform that can be shared with and used by other network operators, to model EV adoption and domestic charging growth.
The tool can also be used in different modelling scenarios, incorporating commercial or public charging provisions, and allowing a whole systems approach to be developed. There are also clear synergies with the transition to low carbon heating, as it can be adopted to forecast demand growth as more domestic customers accept new technologies, such as electric heat pumps.
EV Up is an important tool for SP Energy Networks to ensure that no community is left behind, as we accelerate our move towards a green future and journey to Net Zero. It will be central at helping us realise the environmental and economic benefits of building a green economy and creating a better future, quicker for everyone.